As the election date draws near, the major nominees, Kamala Harris (59, Democratic) and Donald Trump (78, Republican), prepare to face off in the fight for the Oval Office. Heading into the second half of the year, the U.S. election is expected to have far-reaching implications on the cannabis industry in America and beyond. Key issues such as regulation, taxation, and the integration of cannabis into the mainstream economy are crucial in shaping the future of this dynamic sector.
As the world continues to embrace cannabis for its remedial attributes, the industry is solidifying its position on a broad scale as a key part of the global economy. The stakes are high for the cannabis market participants who want to secure their interests in a rapidly evolving landscape. Perhaps unsurprisingly, this burgeoning industry has already become a major talking point in the US election cycle as a cannabis-friendly presidential nominee and a favorable regulatory framework become a focus for voters.
This 2024 US presidential election is poised to have a profound impact on the cannabis industry, an emerging market that has been gaining momentum in recent years with the legalization for both medical and recreational use by many states in the us. As the candidates take to the campaign trail, the future of cannabis policy hangs in the balance, with far-reaching implications for businesses, consumers, and the economy as a whole. In this article, we will delve into the current state of cannabis policy, the candidates’ stances on the issue, and the potential outcomes of the election, exploring how the result will shape the industry’s growth, regulation, and overall landscape.
Current State of Cannabis Policy
Despite the growing acceptance of cannabis in the U.S., it remains federally classified as a Schedule I controlled substance, placing it alongside drugs like heroin and LSD. This classification makes it difficult for businesses to access banking services, tax deductions, and other essential resources, creating a complex and often contradictory regulatory environment.
At the state level, however, 36 states have legalized medical cannabis, and 18 states have legalized recreational use. While this has created a booming market with expected sales of $43.6 billion by 2025, the lack of federal oversight has led to concerns around safety standards and inconsistent regulations.
A presidential candidate who supports federal legalization could potentially reclassify or deschedule cannabis, allowing for a unified national market. Conversely, candidates opposed to cannabis reform could keep the current restrictions, leaving the industry to navigate a fragmented system of state-level laws.
The Candidates’ Stances on Cannabis
Kamala Harris (Democrat)
Vice President Kamala Harris has been an advocate for cannabis reform. During her time in the Senate, she co-sponsored the Marijuana Opportunity Reinvestment and Expungement (MORE) Act, which aims to federally legalize cannabis, expunge convictions, and invest in communities most harmed by the War on Drugs. Harris has repeatedly emphasized the need for racial equity in cannabis reform and has expressed support for both decriminalization and legalization. Her vice presidency has been instrumental in pushing forward Biden’s cannabis reforms, and as the Democratic nominee, Harris could push for full federal legalization, promoting equity in the industry and opening avenues for nationwide trade and investment.
Banking and Legalization: Harris supports the SAFE Banking Act, which would grant cannabis businesses access to traditional banking services.
Social Equity: Harris is focused on addressing the racial disparities caused by the War on Drugs, ensuring marginalized communities benefit from cannabis reforms.
Donald Trump (Republican)
Donald Trump’s stance on cannabis has been inconsistent. During his presidency, Trump did not prioritize cannabis reform, and his administration was largely hands-off on the issue. While he has not explicitly opposed legalization, his Justice Department, under then-Attorney General Jeff Sessions, rescinded Obama-era guidance that protected state-legal cannabis businesses from federal prosecution. In 2018, Trump signed the Farm Bill, which legalized hemp and paved the way for the production of CBD products. However, his administration has also:
1. Rescinded the Cole Memorandum, which provided guidance on federal enforcement of cannabis laws in states with legal programs.
2. Launched a crackdown on cannabis businesses, including raids and prosecutions.
3. Supported legislation aimed at restricting cannabis research and access.
In the 2024 race, Trump has not made clear whether he would support federal legalization or continue his previous ambivalence toward cannabis reform.
Other Candidates/nominees
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (Independent)
Kennedy Jr., running as a Democratic candidate, has voiced his support for cannabis reform. He has spoken in favor of legalization, particularly as a means to address the racial disparities caused by the War on Drugs. Kennedy has also highlighted the potential medical benefits of cannabis and has expressed interest in expanding research into its uses.
Marianne Williamson (Democratic)
Williamson is a progressive candidate who strongly supports the legalization of cannabis. She advocates for federal legalization and the expungement of all cannabis-related convictions. Williamson also emphasizes the importance of social equity in cannabis reform, advocating for policies that prioritize marginalized communities that have been disproportionately affected by cannabis criminalization.
Ron DeSantis (Republican)
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis has taken a more conservative approach to cannabis. While Florida has a medical marijuana program, DeSantis has expressed opposition to recreational cannabis legalization. He has stated that he would not support federal legalization, viewing cannabis as a gateway drug. His administration in Florida has maintained a strict stance on cannabis regulation, and he is unlikely to push for reforms at the federal level if elected.
Vivek Ramaswamy (Republican)
Vivek Ramaswamy, a businessman and political newcomer, has a more libertarian approach to cannabis policy. He has expressed support for decriminalizing cannabis and has indicated that states should have the right to decide their cannabis policies without federal interference. While Ramaswamy does not advocate for full federal legalization, he supports easing restrictions and allowing states more autonomy in regulating cannabis.
Nikki Haley (Republican)
Former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley has not made cannabis reform a central issue of her campaign, but she has historically taken a cautious approach. While serving as governor, she opposed recreational cannabis legalization but expressed openness to medical cannabis under strict regulations. Haley’s stance on federal cannabis reform is likely to lean conservative, focusing more on maintaining state control over the issue.
Cornel West (Green Party)
Cornel West is a staunch advocate for full cannabis legalization. As a progressive candidate, West supports not only federal legalization but also the expungement of cannabis-related criminal records and the implementation of social equity programs to ensure that communities affected by the War on Drugs benefit from cannabis reform.
Larry Elder (Libertarian Party)
Larry Elder, running on a Libertarian platform, supports the decriminalization of cannabis and opposes federal government interference in state cannabis policies. Elder has expressed that the federal government should not criminalize cannabis use and that individuals should have the freedom to make their own choices regarding marijuana.
Potential Outcomes and Implications for Cannabis
Depending on the election outcome, the cannabis industry can expect significant changes. With Kamala Harris leading the Democratic campaign, while Donald Trump remains the Republican candidate, the possible outcome will be unpredictable.
Below is an overview of the potential outcomes and implications for the cannabis sector based on each major candidate’s victory:
Kamala Harris
Potential Outcome: Federal Legalization and Expungement of Criminal Records
Federal Legalization: Harris has been an advocate for full federal legalization of cannabis. If elected, she could push for comprehensive legislation that legalizes cannabis nationwide, removes it from the Schedule I drug classification, and allows for interstate commerce.
Criminal Justice Reform: A Harris presidency would likely emphasize the expungement of cannabis-related criminal records and provide federal support for social equity programs, enabling communities affected by the War on Drugs to participate in the cannabis economy.
Investment Boom: Federal legalization under Harris could lead to an investment boom in the cannabis sector, with large institutional investors and publicly traded companies entering the market. This could also bring stock market stability to the cannabis sector.
Banking and Regulation: Harris is likely to support the SAFE Banking Act and additional measures to ease the regulatory burden on cannabis businesses, encouraging wider participation and more normalized financial operations.
Donald Trump
Potential Outcome: Status Quo with Uncertainty
Federal Policy: Trump’s position on cannabis has been inconsistent. If he were re-elected, he might leave cannabis reform primarily in the hands of individual states, avoiding federal legalization but not actively cracking down on state-legal markets.
Banking and Financial Services: Trump’s hands-off approach would likely delay banking reform, leaving cannabis businesses to continue operating in a legal gray area. The reliance on cash-based operations would persist, keeping the industry somewhat constrained.
Social Equity and Justice Reform: Trump is unlikely to champion social equity initiatives or pursue federal pardons and expungements related to cannabis convictions.
Industry Uncertainty: Trump’s unclear stance could create uncertainty for the industry. While his administration might not actively oppose cannabis reforms, the lack of clear support could limit federal action, leaving the status quo largely unchanged.
Ron DeSantis
Potential Outcome: Minimal Federal Support and Stricter Regulation
Federal Policy: DeSantis has been vocal in his opposition to recreational cannabis legalization and has described marijuana as a gateway drug. A DeSantis presidency would likely see little to no movement toward federal legalization. In fact, he could adopt a stricter stance on cannabis enforcement.
State Autonomy: DeSantis might allow states to continue managing their own cannabis policies but would likely oppose any federal efforts to legalize or regulate cannabis.
Banking and Commerce: DeSantis would be unlikely to support the SAFE Banking Act, leaving cannabis businesses to navigate financial challenges on their own.
Industry Setback: His opposition to cannabis could slow down the momentum of the industry and deter investment, especially at the federal level. Businesses operating in state-legal markets would continue facing barriers to scaling.
Vivek Ramaswamy
Potential Outcome: Decriminalization with Focus on State Control
Federal Policy: Ramaswamy supports cannabis decriminalization but opposes federal legalization. His policy would likely leave regulation in the hands of individual states while removing criminal penalties for possession on a federal level.
Banking and Commerce: Ramaswamy might support measures to ease restrictions on banking and financial services for cannabis businesses, given his pro-business and libertarian leanings. This could result in more accessible banking but without the full-scale federal legalization.
State-Driven Growth: Under a Ramaswamy administration, states would continue to play the primary role in regulating cannabis. States with established legal markets could continue expanding, but a lack of federal oversight might create inconsistencies across the country.
Moderate Growth: The industry could experience steady growth in states that have already legalized cannabis, but the absence of federal legalization might hinder nationwide investment and cross-state operations.
Nikki Haley
Potential Outcome: Maintaining State Control with Some Medical Reforms
Federal Policy: Haley has historically opposed recreational cannabis but has been open to medical cannabis reform. As president, she might maintain a conservative stance on recreational use but could push for expanded access to medical cannabis under strict regulations.
State Control: Like other conservative candidates, Haley would likely leave cannabis policy up to individual states. Federal legalization would be off the table during her presidency, with a focus on ensuring that states maintain autonomy over their cannabis markets.
Banking and Business Constraints: Similar to DeSantis, Haley would be less likely to support banking reforms for cannabis businesses. Without federal intervention, cannabis businesses would face ongoing challenges accessing banking services.
Limited Industry Growth: The cannabis industry’s growth would be constrained, particularly in states without established legal frameworks. Medical cannabis might see some expansion, but recreational cannabis would face more barriers under a Haley presidency.
Cornel West
Potential Outcome: Comprehensive Legalization and Strong Social Equity Programs
Federal Legalization: Cornel West is a vocal proponent of full cannabis legalization. His presidency would likely result in swift federal action to legalize cannabis, remove it from the Schedule I classification, and establish federal guidelines for the industry.
Criminal Justice Reform: West would prioritize the expungement of cannabis-related criminal records and invest in social equity programs. His administration would work to repair the damage caused by the War on Drugs, ensuring that marginalized communities have greater access to cannabis business opportunities.
Federal Support for Business: A West administration could offer federal grants and support to small cannabis businesses, especially those owned by people from communities disproportionately impacted by cannabis prohibition.
Global Impact: Full legalization under West could position the U.S. as a leader in the global cannabis industry, promoting international trade, research, and development.
Larry Elder
Potential Outcome: Decriminalization with Minimal Federal Involvement
Federal Policy: Elder supports the decriminalization of cannabis but is opposed to federal government involvement in state decisions regarding cannabis regulation. He would likely maintain a hands-off approach, allowing states to craft their own policies.
Banking and Commerce: Elder might support financial reforms to help cannabis businesses access banking services, as his libertarian philosophy favors less government intervention in private industry.
State Control: With no push for federal legalization, the cannabis industry would continue to operate under a patchwork of state laws. Elder’s presidency would see minimal federal involvement, leaving most decisions up to individual states.
Stable Growth in Legal States: States with established legal markets would continue to thrive, while states without legal frameworks would be unaffected by federal intervention.
Impact on Social Equity Initiatives
Social equity programs designed to support individuals and communities most impacted by the War on Drugs are a growing focus within the cannabis industry. The stance of the next president could determine how robust these programs become on a federal level. A progressive administration might push for stronger federal programs, grants, and regulations to support social equity initiatives, making it easier for marginalized communities to enter and succeed in the cannabis business. Conversely, an administration less focused on these issues might deprioritize such initiatives, limiting the reach of social justice reform within the cannabis space.
Banking and Financial Access
One of the biggest hurdles facing the cannabis industry is access to banking services. Due to federal restrictions, most cannabis businesses operate in cash, creating security risks and operational challenges. The Safe Banking Act, which would allow cannabis businesses to access traditional banking services, has stalled in Congress for years. The election of a president who supports the passage of this act could finally give cannabis businesses access to safer, more reliable financial systems. A president who is indifferent or opposed to cannabis reform might prevent such legislation from moving forward.
Investment and Stock Market Growth
If the federal government moves towards cannabis legalization, it could spark a boom in cannabis stocks and attract institutional investors to the sector. Companies involved in cultivation, retail, and ancillary services (like packaging or technology) could see a massive uptick in value. A pro-cannabis administration might lead to greater stock market confidence, while a more conservative administration could maintain the current volatility in cannabis-related stocks.
Global Implications
As more countries around the world move to legalize cannabis, the stance of the U.S. on marijuana has global implications. If the next president embraces legalization, the U.S. could become a global leader in cannabis research, development, and trade. This could open international markets and allow U.S. cannabis companies to expand overseas. However, if federal prohibition remains, other countries may surpass the U.S. in developing cannabis-related innovations, positioning them as leaders in the global market.
Challenges Ahead
While the election offers significant opportunities for cannabis reform, challenges remain:
1. Congressional Resistance:Any move towards legalization may face opposition in Congress.
2. Regulatory Hurdles: Even with federal legalization, states will have varying regulations.
3. Public Health Concerns: Issues like youth access and impaired driving will continue to pose challenges.
4. International Obligations: The U.S. would need to navigate international treaties like the Single Convention on Narcotic Drugs, which restrict cannabis.
- Conclusion
As the cannabis narrative continues to intertwine with the US election cycle, the choices made in the voting booth could well determine the trajectory of this transformative technology. The stage is set for a pivotal moment in the industry’s history, and the decisions made in the next few months will echo far into the future of cannabis.
